Worth the read, thanks. One point on population and poverty - even though 125,000 more people rose out of extreme poverty each day the total population rose by 190,000. Not sure where the 65,000 end up. Unfortunately I expect there are more people in poverty now than at any time in history, probably more than the entire pre-industrial population, so I am a bit wary of claiming poverty reduction as a great victory for industrialization.
Actually, both the relative and absolute number of people in extreme poverty have decreased-an amazing human accomplishment! In 1980, the world population was less than 4.5 billion, and over 1.9 billion of those people were living in extreme poverty. (Yes, this is inflation-adjusted). In 2015, the world population was over 7.3 billion, and less than 750 million (less than 0.75 billion) were living in extreme poverty. The world really is much better than most people think!
And of course only a proportion of the population growth will be in poverty, not my simplistic growth minus those lifted out of poverty - I realized that a couple of seconds after clicking "post". Economic growth with trickle down helps but isn't ever going to be sufficient; it does require some actual intent as well as resources from the more affluent. Ultimately this benefits the more affluent as well, with the costs of not addressing it likely to exceed the savings from not addressing it.
Whilst I do swing from pessimism to cautious optimism I expect poverty will continue being a serious problem, with our climate and energy policy responses an increasingly critical element.
Great interview Sam! You two are very much bird of a feather! In defense of the doom and gloom community--it is our warnings and focus on the negatives that drives the reforms and improvements worldwide that you note! Neither community can exist without the other!
Absolutely-as the Our World in Data graphic discusses, three things can be true at the same time: "The world is awful, The world is much better, The world can be much better still." I just think current media dynamics have driven perceptions too far in the "doom" direction.
Great interview, but saying that malaria has killed more people than any other disease in human history is a stretch. I’m sure there is disagreement among experts, and I’m no expert, but I side with the people who think that honor belongs to smallpox.
I agree! People are driven as much by optimism as pessimism. How else to account for the cross cultural, cross-temporal popularity of gambling? Reward maximation prevails over loss minimization. You'll note a turn toward optimism in my writings about AI in the last three months! I'm betting on a bright future.
Worth the read, thanks. One point on population and poverty - even though 125,000 more people rose out of extreme poverty each day the total population rose by 190,000. Not sure where the 65,000 end up. Unfortunately I expect there are more people in poverty now than at any time in history, probably more than the entire pre-industrial population, so I am a bit wary of claiming poverty reduction as a great victory for industrialization.
Actually, both the relative and absolute number of people in extreme poverty have decreased-an amazing human accomplishment! In 1980, the world population was less than 4.5 billion, and over 1.9 billion of those people were living in extreme poverty. (Yes, this is inflation-adjusted). In 2015, the world population was over 7.3 billion, and less than 750 million (less than 0.75 billion) were living in extreme poverty. The world really is much better than most people think!
Check out a chart showing this at https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-in-extreme-poverty-absolute
Check out the full article at https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-history-methods
And of course only a proportion of the population growth will be in poverty, not my simplistic growth minus those lifted out of poverty - I realized that a couple of seconds after clicking "post". Economic growth with trickle down helps but isn't ever going to be sufficient; it does require some actual intent as well as resources from the more affluent. Ultimately this benefits the more affluent as well, with the costs of not addressing it likely to exceed the savings from not addressing it.
Whilst I do swing from pessimism to cautious optimism I expect poverty will continue being a serious problem, with our climate and energy policy responses an increasingly critical element.
Great interview Sam! You two are very much bird of a feather! In defense of the doom and gloom community--it is our warnings and focus on the negatives that drives the reforms and improvements worldwide that you note! Neither community can exist without the other!
Absolutely-as the Our World in Data graphic discusses, three things can be true at the same time: "The world is awful, The world is much better, The world can be much better still." I just think current media dynamics have driven perceptions too far in the "doom" direction.
Great interview, but saying that malaria has killed more people than any other disease in human history is a stretch. I’m sure there is disagreement among experts, and I’m no expert, but I side with the people who think that honor belongs to smallpox.
I agree! People are driven as much by optimism as pessimism. How else to account for the cross cultural, cross-temporal popularity of gambling? Reward maximation prevails over loss minimization. You'll note a turn toward optimism in my writings about AI in the last three months! I'm betting on a bright future.